San Francisco Real Estate in 2025: A Market That Found Its Confidence Again
By Richard Valdez - www.RichardValdezRE.com
One evening, my husband and I were winding down after a long day—our dogs already asleep, the city lights flickering through the window—when I realized something had quietly shifted.
San Francisco wasn’t hesitating anymore.
After several years of caution, uncertainty, and recalibration, the San Francisco housing market regained momentum in 2025—and it did so with intention. Confidence returned, demand followed, and buyers once again showed a willingness to compete for the right home.
The AI Economy Changed the Conversation
The defining force behind the market’s resurgence was artificial intelligence.
In 2025, AI-driven investment and job growth flooded the Bay Area, bringing with it high salaries, large signing bonuses, and meaningful pre-IPO liquidity. That economic confidence translated directly into housing demand. Pending sales surged—particularly in the fall—even as many national markets remained flat.
At the same time:
Office attendance increased
Downtown foot traffic recovered
Unemployment fell to 3.7%
Together, these indicators confirmed what buyers already felt: San Francisco had entered a new expansion phase.
Single-Family Homes: Competitive and Fast-Moving
Single-family homes led the market’s rebound.
In 2025:
Median sales price: $1,700,801 (up 4.7% year-over-year)
Homes sold: 2,296 (up 6.2%)
Median days on market: just 13 days
Approximately 75% of homes sold above list price
Average sale-to-list price: 113.4%
Buyers were decisive. Well-located, move-in-ready homes sparked bidding wars, and preparation became essential. Neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, Bernal Heights, the Castro, the Sunset, and the Richmond saw particularly strong competition, while traditionally prestigious areas like Pacific Heights and the Marina continued to command premium pricing.
The message was clear: quality and location mattered—and buyers were willing to pay for both.
Condominiums: The Strongest Turnaround of the Year
If single-family homes reflected confidence, condominiums delivered the year’s most notable comeback.
After several challenging years, the condo market regained momentum as buyers adjusted expectations and sought alternatives to increasingly competitive house inventory.
In 2025:
Condo sales increased 11.4%
Contracts rose 10.3%
Median condo price: $1,150,000 (up 2.2%)
Median days on market fell to 28
Nearly 38% sold above asking price
As single-family competition intensified, many buyers pivoted strategically to condos—restoring balance and activity to a segment that had previously lagged.
Interest Rates Helped Restore Momentum
Mortgage rates played a supporting role but made a meaningful difference.
After starting the year near 7%, the average 30-year fixed rate declined steadily, reaching 6.15% by year-end. That shift improved affordability, increased purchasing power, and reinforced buyer confidence heading into 2026.
What This Means for 2026
San Francisco does not move in half measures. When confidence returns, it tends to accelerate quickly.
With:
Continued AI-driven economic growth
Limited housing inventory
Faster sales cycles
Rising prices across both houses and condos
The city is positioned for an active and highly competitive 2026, particularly as we move into the spring selling season.
For buyers, preparation and strategy will be critical.
For sellers, timing and pricing precision will matter more than ever.
Thinking About Your Next Move?
Whether you’re considering selling, buying, or simply trying to understand where the San Francisco market is headed, having the right guidance makes all the difference.
I work with clients who value clarity, discretion, and informed decision-making—backed by local expertise and a deep understanding of San Francisco’s evolving neighborhoods.
👉 If you’re planning a move in 2026, let’s talk.
Visit www.RichardValdezRE.com to schedule a confidential consultation and start building a strategy that fits your goals.
Because in a city that constantly reinvents itself,
your real estate decisions should be just as intentional.
